On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly jobs report, showing a preliminary estimate of 254,000 net new jobs in the American economy in September. The much-better-than-expected result begs the question – How believable is it? Here’s a look at revisions to the monthly jobs report by month for the initial release, and the first and second revisions.
The Monthly Jobs Numbers
The following is the monthly jobs for the initial reading (second column), first revision, second revision, and the difference from the original reading to the second (or first if there is only one revision) revision. On net, the average revision is a drop from the initial reading of 21,000. In 2024, the average difference has been downward by 36,000.
Looking at the Revisions
The first reading typically gives markets and policymakers an early snapshot of employment trends. However, as more accurate data becomes available, the revisions can be significant, as shown.
Initial vs Revised Readings
The data shows both upward and downward adjustments between the initial and revised readings. In some months, like March 2023, the revisions were significant, with the final estimate being much lower than the initial one. In other months, like April 2023, the revised estimates actually increased compared to the original report.
Differences Between Initial and Final Estimates
One key takeaway from the data is the magnitude of the difference between initial readings and final revisions. The difference from the original reading, shown in the second chart, highlights how much job estimates can change over time. In January 2023, the number of jobs was revised down by 35,000 from the initial estimate, while in April, the revisions added 25,000 jobs to the original report. The trend, though, is nowhere near positive, and, as shown, have gotten increasingly negative. One may be well served considering recent jobs numbers with a bit of skepticism.
Conclusion
Understanding these revisions is crucial, especially when analyzing short-term trends in employment. Revisions often reflect the evolving picture of the economy and can sometimes be more informative than the initial reading. Tracking these changes over time can help paint a clearer picture of labor market trends and guide better decision-making by economists, policymakers, and businesses.
Judging by recent revisions in the jobs market counts relative to 2023, one may be well-served being a little more cautious than normal in assuming high monthly jobs numbers are realistic.
